Must win game for Leeds
Leeds 1.55 v v Millwall 7.20; The Draw 4.30
Leeds have been dicing with the uncertainty of the play-offs in recent times. After Marcelo Bielsa’s team have occupied an automatic spot for most of the campaign, their 1-0 defeat to Sheffield United prior to the international break has left them third in, what appears to be, a three-horse race for a guaranteed Premier League berth next season.
Despite controlling possession against the Blades at Elland Road, Leeds failed to get a shot on target in a Championship match for the first time under Bielsa. For the Argentinian boss the break will have allowed his high tempo side a chance to recharge.
The Whites have bossed matches against teams in the Championship bottom six, winning eight of their nine games this season. To Millwall’s credit they were the team to break the trend with a 1-1 draw in September. Leeds have won five of their last six league games against Millwall at Elland Road as the Lions have kept just one clean sheet in their last 15 Elland Road trips.
Millwall are precariously positioned, just one point above the relegation zone after losing four of their last five league games. With only three away Championship wins this season a visit to Leeds is certainly not top of manager Neil Harris’s wish-list.
With Sheffield United facing a tougher opponent in Bristol City, this is a golden opportunity for Bielsa’s team to bounce back and post their 13th home win of the season. Leeds to win and over 2.5 match goals @ 2.39 has got to be worth a punt.
Tractor Boys ploughing wrong furrow
Ipswich 3.10 v Hull 2.54; The Draw 3.30
The international break came at the wrong time for Ipswich. They had upped their game from atrocious to mediocre as 1-1 draws at home to Nottingham Forest and away at Bristol City, West Brom and Wigan have given temporary reason to stop tearing their hair out. The only defeat the Tractor Boys have suffered in their last five matches was a 2-1 home loss to Reading.
They are correctly tagged the worst side in the Championship, but they are showing vague fight. Ipswich have scored in 11 of their last 12 games, which makes Both Teams To Score a strong contender against a Hull defence that leaks.
As Ipswich ponder how they might secure their first league win against Hull since May 2008, they face the impossible task of closing the 13-point gap to safety with only eight games and 24 points to play for. They are doomed.
Hull are six points short of the play-offs after taking one point from the last nine played for. But this should be easy pickings for Nigel Adkins’ side, who have kept a clean sheet in four of their last five league games against Ipswich, including their 2-0 win at the KCOM back in September, and won every one of their last nine games against the East Anglian side.
Hull’s home form has been their Achilles Heal having won only one of their last 13 matches against teams starting the day in the relegation zone. But Ipswich have won none of their 20 Championship matches this season against the teams currently in the top-half of the division (D8, L12). Something has to give. Take a Hull win and BTTS @ 5.24.
Rams ready to rout Rotherham
Derby 1.71 v Rotherham 6.00; The Draw 3.90
If Rotherham can take three points from Derby on Saturday it will be the first time they have done the league double over the Rams since the 1965/66 season. Even England have won the World Cup since then! The Millers are showing fight in their bid to stave off relegation, but they have lost on their last seven trips to Derby and they remain in the relegation zone with the season’s final whistle fast approaching.
Derby have won every home match they have played against Rotherham with the Millers only finding the net in one of those fixtures. It does put me off suggesting Semi Ajayi as a goalscorer punt. If Rotherham do find the net in this one the Nigerian is the likely candidate with his seven-goal tally in 2019 sixth on the Championship list. He’s also scored with his last six efforts on target.
Rotherham though have only won one of the last 22 away matches and that shouldn’t frighten Frank Lampard’s side. Derby start this round of fixtures only a point outside the play-off zone. This should be easy pickings. Play Derby to win and over 2.5 goals @ 2.8.
This Article First Published on https://betting.betfair.com